Marist Poll: Clinton lead shrinking; Bush/Christie lead for GOP nomination

Marist Poll taken 8/4-8/7 has Jeb Bush and Chris Christie leading for the Republican nomination at 13% followed closely by Ted Cruz, Paul Ryan, and Marco Rubio.  Here's the full results:

Choice of Republicans and Republican Leaning independents:
Jeb Bush         13%
Chris Christie 13%
Ted Cruz         10%
Paul Ryan           9%
Marco Rubio   9%
Rick Perry   7%
Rand Paul           7%
Scott Walker   4%
Rick Santorum   3%
Bobby Jindal   2%

The poll also shows Hillary Clinton leading over the Republican candidates but that lead has shrunk significantly from the April poll.  Christie, Bush, and Paul are all now within 7% of Clinton.  They were all double digits behind her in April.  Here's the comparision:

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Alaska Poll Palin in 6th place for Republican nomination with Clinton beating her head to head

A PPP Poll of Alaskan voters showed Ted Cruz and Rand Paul in the lead for the Republican nomination ahead of the state's former governor, Sarah Palin.  Here are the full results:

Ted Cruz ......................................................... 16%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 15%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 14%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 12%
Chris Christie .................................................. 12%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 11%
Scott Walker ................................................... 7%
Paul Ryan ....................................................... 6%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 5%
Someone else / Not sure ................................ 4%

The same poll also asked the voters about head to head matchups of Republican candidates over Hillary Clinton:

Rand Paul wins 50/36
Jeb Bush wins 47/38
Mike Huckabee wins 47/39
Chris Christie wins 45/34
Sarah Palin loses 36/55

The fact that most Republican candidates would defeat Clinton in Alaska is not surprising: the state voted heavily Republican in 2012 as Romney won the state 55% to 41%.

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Favorability Changes for Top Candidates

An AP-GfK Poll measured the favorable and unfavorable ratings of candidates July 24-28.  It also had the same ratings for a poll taken March 20-24.  Here are some of the findings:

- It's clear who the voters are most familiar with:  Hillary Clinton has both the highest favorable rating at 48 and the highest unfavorable rating at 42.  Most importantly she has the highest net favorable at +6.

Rick Perry and Ted Cruz showed the biggest improvements in their net rating but both remain at -8 favorability.  Rick Perry raised his favorable by 8 points and his net by 5. Ted Cruz raised his favorable by 4 while not gaining any unfavorable.

NC poll shows state is currently a toss up in 2016 presidential election

A Civitas Institute poll shows NC will likely be a toss up between the Republican candidate and Hillary Clinton in 2016.  Romney beat Obama in the state in 2012 50% to 48%.

First the party nominations:

For the Republicans, Jeb Bush holds a big lead followed by a tight group in Christie, Paul, Rubio, and Perry:

NJ Poll has Clinton over Christie

According to an August 6 Quinnipiac poll of NJ voters, Hillary Clinton leads Chris Christie 50-42 for President in 2016.

That is the closest gap, however, with any of the Republican nominees:
54-34 over Jeb Bush
55-35 over Rand Paul
57-34 over Mike Huckabee

This is not surprising as the Democrats won New Jersey rather easily in 2012 with Obama getting 58% and Romney 41%.

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Updated Odds: Perry, Clinton, Romney, Carson up. Rubio, Jindal down

This week's updated odds showed movement among 6 candidates:

Hillary Clinton continued to be the top candidate and actually improved her probability from 41% to 45%.

Rick Perry improved moving into a three way tie with Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan.  As of early July he was in 10th place and 7th place just last week. He seems to be capitalizing on the border crisis.  His probability is at 3.1%

Ohio Poll shows Clinton ahead of Republican candidates with Rand closest

Ohio figures to be one of the more important swing states in the 2016 election (Barack Obama won it 50.7% to 47.7% in 2012, but it was Republican in 2008 with George Bush winning it 50.8% to 48.7%)

A poll of 1,366 registered voters in Ohio taken July 24-28 showed Hillary Clinton ahead of  four possible Republican canadidates: