Iowa Poll: Huckabee followed by Christie for Republicans and Clinton followed by Warren for Democrats

Iowa Poll of 500 voters was released today.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee leads over Chris Christie:

Mike Huckabee      13%
Chris Christie          11%
Rick Perry                9%
Jeb Bush                  7%
Rand Paul                7%
Paul Ryan                 6%
Rick Santorum          6%
Ted Cruz                  5%
Marco Rubio            5%
Scott Walker            4%
John Kasich              1%
John Huntsman          1%

Respondents were also asked if their choice would change if Mitt Romney was added to the list.  35% said they would vote for Romney.  What's interesting is nearly half of those voting for Christie, Rubio, and Perry would switch their vote to Romney.  On the opposite end, very few of the Santorum and Cruz voters switched

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has a big lead over Elizabeth Warren:

Hillary Clinton                     66%
Elizabeth Warren                10%
Joe Biden                           8%
Andrew Cuomo                 4%
Martin O'Malley                 2%

Link to the Poll (2016 numbers on pages 44-51)

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Updated Odds: Cruz replaces Perry in Top 10

There is a lot of debate about whether the indictment hurt or helped Rick Perry the last two weeks.  One thing is very clear: For those putting money on the elections, it hurt.  Rick Perry had the biggest drop among the top candidates moving from #8 to #15 with the probability dropping from 2.1% to 1.4%.  He peaked at 4th place on 8/2 when his probability was at 3.1%, more than double what it is now.

One of the beneficiaries seems to be fellow Texan Ted Cruz who jumps back into the top 10 at #9 from last week's #11.  Cruz had consistently been in 10th place before being replaced by Romney back in early August.

In other moves in the top 10, Marco Rubio has now caught Jeb Bush for 2nd place.  They both shared the spot in June and July as well. Their individual probability is at 4.3%.

Hillary Clinton continues to be the big leader with a probability of 41.4%.  That number has been eroding recently, however, after having peaked at 44.4% on 8/2.

One person to keep an eye on is Martin O'Malley.  He is currently in 11th place (now ahead of more known names like Perry, Cuomo, and Jindal) and at only 1.5% probability.  His numbers have improved however each of the last three weeks.  Perhaps it's purely a mathematical consequence of Clinton's numbers dropping.

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Marist Poll: Clinton lead shrinking; Bush/Christie lead for GOP nomination

Marist Poll taken 8/4-8/7 has Jeb Bush and Chris Christie leading for the Republican nomination at 13% followed closely by Ted Cruz, Paul Ryan, and Marco Rubio.  Here's the full results:

Choice of Republicans and Republican Leaning independents:
Jeb Bush         13%
Chris Christie 13%
Ted Cruz         10%
Paul Ryan           9%
Marco Rubio   9%
Rick Perry   7%
Rand Paul           7%
Scott Walker   4%
Rick Santorum   3%
Bobby Jindal   2%

The poll also shows Hillary Clinton leading over the Republican candidates but that lead has shrunk significantly from the April poll.  Christie, Bush, and Paul are all now within 7% of Clinton.  They were all double digits behind her in April.  Here's the comparision:

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Alaska Poll Palin in 6th place for Republican nomination with Clinton beating her head to head

A PPP Poll of Alaskan voters showed Ted Cruz and Rand Paul in the lead for the Republican nomination ahead of the state's former governor, Sarah Palin.  Here are the full results:

Ted Cruz ......................................................... 16%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 15%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 14%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 12%
Chris Christie .................................................. 12%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 11%
Scott Walker ................................................... 7%
Paul Ryan ....................................................... 6%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 5%
Someone else / Not sure ................................ 4%

The same poll also asked the voters about head to head matchups of Republican candidates over Hillary Clinton:

Rand Paul wins 50/36
Jeb Bush wins 47/38
Mike Huckabee wins 47/39
Chris Christie wins 45/34
Sarah Palin loses 36/55

The fact that most Republican candidates would defeat Clinton in Alaska is not surprising: the state voted heavily Republican in 2012 as Romney won the state 55% to 41%.

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