Updated Odds: Clinton lead shrinks, Christie up to 4th, Perry down to 18th

Hillary Clinton continues to have a large, but shrinking lead.  Her probability is now at 41.1%, well above the 2nd place candidate Marco Rubio who is at 4.5%.  The probability has shrunk however from 44.4% at the beginning of the month.

Chris Christie has continued to rebound and is now in 4th place overall switching spots with Rand Paul, now in 5th.  Christie was the top GOP candidate as late as the end of May before he started trending down, bottoming beginning of August at 8th place.

Paul Ryan dropped to 7th place from 6th swapping spot with Elizabeth Warren.

The biggest move of the week was another drop by Rick Perry.  Perry is now in 18th place after peaking at 4th place at the beginning of the month. He is now behind much lesser known names like Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels.

Dark horse of the week goes to Andrew Cuomo who is now in 11th place.  He has moved up each of the last 4 weeks from 20th place.

To see a list of all candidates and their odds, click here

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
Link to recent news on the race
Link to recent Polls

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Iowa Poll: Huckabee followed by Christie for Republicans and Clinton followed by Warren for Democrats

Iowa Poll of 500 voters was released today.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee leads over Chris Christie:

Mike Huckabee      13%
Chris Christie          11%
Rick Perry                9%
Jeb Bush                  7%
Rand Paul                7%
Paul Ryan                 6%
Rick Santorum          6%
Ted Cruz                  5%
Marco Rubio            5%
Scott Walker            4%
John Kasich              1%
John Huntsman          1%

Respondents were also asked if their choice would change if Mitt Romney was added to the list.  35% said they would vote for Romney.  What's interesting is nearly half of those voting for Christie, Rubio, and Perry would switch their vote to Romney.  On the opposite end, very few of the Santorum and Cruz voters switched

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has a big lead over Elizabeth Warren:

Hillary Clinton                     66%
Elizabeth Warren                10%
Joe Biden                           8%
Andrew Cuomo                 4%
Martin O'Malley                 2%

Link to the Poll (2016 numbers on pages 44-51)

Link to the odds on all the candidates
Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
Link to recent Polls

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

NY Poll: Clinton, Cuomo comfortably ahead of Republican nomineess

Quinnipac released a poll of NY state voters that showed Clinton and Cuomo well ahead of the top Republican candidates in the state.

Clinton leads:
60 - 29 percent over Jeb Bush (+31)
61 - 30 percent over Rand Paul (+29)
54 - 34 percent over Chris Christie (+20)

Cuomo leads:
53 - 30 percent over Bush (+23)
55 - 31 percent over Paul (+24)
47 - 37 percent over Christie (+10)

- Overall Clinton does a better job against the Republicans than Cuomo
- Overall Christie does the best amongt the Republicans which isn't a surprise given his close proximity to NY

One bright spot for Christie is has has closed the gap since February where he was down by 27 to Clinton (picked up 7 points) and down by 16 points to Cuomo (picked up 6 points)

NY is heavily Democratic as evidenced by Obama's 63-35 win over Romney in 2012 and is not expected to be in play in 2012.

Link to the poll

Link to the odds on all the candidates
Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
Link to recent Polls

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds