Updated Odds: Clinton lead shrinks, Christie up to 4th, Perry down to 18th

Hillary Clinton continues to have a large, but shrinking lead.  Her probability is now at 41.1%, well above the 2nd place candidate Marco Rubio who is at 4.5%.  The probability has shrunk however from 44.4% at the beginning of the month.

Chris Christie has continued to rebound and is now in 4th place overall switching spots with Rand Paul, now in 5th.  Christie was the top GOP candidate as late as the end of May before he started trending down, bottoming beginning of August at 8th place.

Paul Ryan dropped to 7th place from 6th swapping spot with Elizabeth Warren.

The biggest move of the week was another drop by Rick Perry.  Perry is now in 18th place after peaking at 4th place at the beginning of the month. He is now behind much lesser known names like Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels.

Dark horse of the week goes to Andrew Cuomo who is now in 11th place.  He has moved up each of the last 4 weeks from 20th place.

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Iowa Poll: Huckabee followed by Christie for Republicans and Clinton followed by Warren for Democrats

Iowa Poll of 500 voters was released today.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee leads over Chris Christie:

Mike Huckabee      13%
Chris Christie          11%
Rick Perry                9%
Jeb Bush                  7%
Rand Paul                7%
Paul Ryan                 6%
Rick Santorum          6%
Ted Cruz                  5%
Marco Rubio            5%
Scott Walker            4%
John Kasich              1%
John Huntsman          1%

Respondents were also asked if their choice would change if Mitt Romney was added to the list.  35% said they would vote for Romney.  What's interesting is nearly half of those voting for Christie, Rubio, and Perry would switch their vote to Romney.  On the opposite end, very few of the Santorum and Cruz voters switched

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has a big lead over Elizabeth Warren:

Hillary Clinton                     66%
Elizabeth Warren                10%
Joe Biden                           8%
Andrew Cuomo                 4%
Martin O'Malley                 2%

Link to the Poll (2016 numbers on pages 44-51)

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NY Poll: Clinton, Cuomo comfortably ahead of Republican nomineess

Quinnipac released a poll of NY state voters that showed Clinton and Cuomo well ahead of the top Republican candidates in the state.

Clinton leads:
60 - 29 percent over Jeb Bush (+31)
61 - 30 percent over Rand Paul (+29)
54 - 34 percent over Chris Christie (+20)

Cuomo leads:
53 - 30 percent over Bush (+23)
55 - 31 percent over Paul (+24)
47 - 37 percent over Christie (+10)

- Overall Clinton does a better job against the Republicans than Cuomo
- Overall Christie does the best amongt the Republicans which isn't a surprise given his close proximity to NY

One bright spot for Christie is has has closed the gap since February where he was down by 27 to Clinton (picked up 7 points) and down by 16 points to Cuomo (picked up 6 points)

NY is heavily Democratic as evidenced by Obama's 63-35 win over Romney in 2012 and is not expected to be in play in 2012.

Link to the poll

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Updated Odds: Clinton lead shrinks; Paul, Rubio, Christie up and Perry down

For the second straight week Hillary Clinton's odds have declined, although she remains the favorite by far. She peaked at 44.4% two weeks ago but is now down to 42.3%.

The biggest move up was by Rand Paul who's odds increased to 3.7% from 2.9% moving him to 4th overall.

Marco Rubio  improved from 3.5% to 3.9% and 3rd overall, 

Chris Christie had a strong week as well moving to 2.9% and 5th overall from 2.5% and 8th overall. Christie is still well behind his May numbers of 4.7% and #2 overall. 

Biggest drop was Rick Perry who after peaking at 3.1% and 4th overall is down to 2.1% and 8th overall this week.

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Marist Poll: Clinton lead shrinking; Bush/Christie lead for GOP nomination

Marist Poll taken 8/4-8/7 has Jeb Bush and Chris Christie leading for the Republican nomination at 13% followed closely by Ted Cruz, Paul Ryan, and Marco Rubio.  Here's the full results:

Choice of Republicans and Republican Leaning independents:
Jeb Bush         13%
Chris Christie 13%
Ted Cruz         10%
Paul Ryan           9%
Marco Rubio   9%
Rick Perry   7%
Rand Paul           7%
Scott Walker   4%
Rick Santorum   3%
Bobby Jindal   2%

The poll also shows Hillary Clinton leading over the Republican candidates but that lead has shrunk significantly from the April poll.  Christie, Bush, and Paul are all now within 7% of Clinton.  They were all double digits behind her in April.  Here's the comparision:

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Alaska Poll Palin in 6th place for Republican nomination with Clinton beating her head to head

A PPP Poll of Alaskan voters showed Ted Cruz and Rand Paul in the lead for the Republican nomination ahead of the state's former governor, Sarah Palin.  Here are the full results:

Ted Cruz ......................................................... 16%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 15%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 14%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 12%
Chris Christie .................................................. 12%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 11%
Scott Walker ................................................... 7%
Paul Ryan ....................................................... 6%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 5%
Someone else / Not sure ................................ 4%

The same poll also asked the voters about head to head matchups of Republican candidates over Hillary Clinton:

Rand Paul wins 50/36
Jeb Bush wins 47/38
Mike Huckabee wins 47/39
Chris Christie wins 45/34
Sarah Palin loses 36/55

The fact that most Republican candidates would defeat Clinton in Alaska is not surprising: the state voted heavily Republican in 2012 as Romney won the state 55% to 41%.

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