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Updated Odds: Clinton lead shrinks, Christie up to 4th, Perry down to 18th

Hillary Clinton continues to have a large, but shrinking lead.  Her probability is now at 41.1%, well above the 2nd place candidate Marco Rubio who is at 4.5%.  The probability has shrunk however from 44.4% at the beginning of the month.

Chris Christie has continued to rebound and is now in 4th place overall switching spots with Rand Paul, now in 5th.  Christie was the top GOP candidate as late as the end of May before he started trending down, bottoming beginning of August at 8th place.

Paul Ryan dropped to 7th place from 6th swapping spot with Elizabeth Warren.

The biggest move of the week was another drop by Rick Perry.  Perry is now in 18th place after peaking at 4th place at the beginning of the month. He is now behind much lesser known names like Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels.

Dark horse of the week goes to Andrew Cuomo who is now in 11th place.  He has moved up each of the last 4 weeks from 20th place.

To see a list of all candidates and their odds, click here

Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
Link to recent news on the race
Link to recent Polls

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Iowa Poll: Huckabee followed by Christie for Republicans and Clinton followed by Warren for Democrats

Iowa Poll of 500 voters was released today.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee leads over Chris Christie:

Mike Huckabee      13%
Chris Christie          11%
Rick Perry                9%
Jeb Bush                  7%
Rand Paul                7%
Paul Ryan                 6%
Rick Santorum          6%
Ted Cruz                  5%
Marco Rubio            5%
Scott Walker            4%
John Kasich              1%
John Huntsman          1%

Respondents were also asked if their choice would change if Mitt Romney was added to the list.  35% said they would vote for Romney.  What's interesting is nearly half of those voting for Christie, Rubio, and Perry would switch their vote to Romney.  On the opposite end, very few of the Santorum and Cruz voters switched

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has a big lead over Elizabeth Warren:

Hillary Clinton                     66%
Elizabeth Warren                10%
Joe Biden                           8%
Andrew Cuomo                 4%
Martin O'Malley                 2%

Link to the Poll (2016 numbers on pages 44-51)

Link to the odds on all the candidates
Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
Link to recent Polls

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Updated Odds: Cruz replaces Perry in Top 10

There is a lot of debate about whether the indictment hurt or helped Rick Perry the last two weeks.  One thing is very clear: For those putting money on the elections, it hurt.  Rick Perry had the biggest drop among the top candidates moving from #8 to #15 with the probability dropping from 2.1% to 1.4%.  He peaked at 4th place on 8/2 when his probability was at 3.1%, more than double what it is now.

One of the beneficiaries seems to be fellow Texan Ted Cruz who jumps back into the top 10 at #9 from last week's #11.  Cruz had consistently been in 10th place before being replaced by Romney back in early August.

In other moves in the top 10, Marco Rubio has now caught Jeb Bush for 2nd place.  They both shared the spot in June and July as well. Their individual probability is at 4.3%.

Hillary Clinton continues to be the big leader with a probability of 41.4%.  That number has been eroding recently, however, after having peaked at 44.4% on 8/2.

One person to keep an eye on is Martin O'Malley.  He is currently in 11th place (now ahead of more known names like Perry, Cuomo, and Jindal) and at only 1.5% probability.  His numbers have improved however each of the last three weeks.  Perhaps it's purely a mathematical consequence of Clinton's numbers dropping.

To see a list of all candidates and their odds, click here
Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
Link to recent news on the race
Link to recent Polls

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

NY Poll: Clinton, Cuomo comfortably ahead of Republican nomineess

Quinnipac released a poll of NY state voters that showed Clinton and Cuomo well ahead of the top Republican candidates in the state.

Clinton leads:
60 - 29 percent over Jeb Bush (+31)
61 - 30 percent over Rand Paul (+29)
54 - 34 percent over Chris Christie (+20)

Cuomo leads:
53 - 30 percent over Bush (+23)
55 - 31 percent over Paul (+24)
47 - 37 percent over Christie (+10)

- Overall Clinton does a better job against the Republicans than Cuomo
- Overall Christie does the best amongt the Republicans which isn't a surprise given his close proximity to NY

One bright spot for Christie is has has closed the gap since February where he was down by 27 to Clinton (picked up 7 points) and down by 16 points to Cuomo (picked up 6 points)

NY is heavily Democratic as evidenced by Obama's 63-35 win over Romney in 2012 and is not expected to be in play in 2012.

Link to the poll

Link to the odds on all the candidates
Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
Link to recent Polls

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

The Start of Scandal Season for the 2016 Presidential Election?

The two biggest 2016 Presidential Election are "mini scandals" from both sides.

On the Republican side, Texas Governor Rick Perry was indicted on abuse of power charges.  Many on the right argue these are politically motivated. There's even some on the left that wonder how strong of a legal base the indictment has

On the Democratic side, the big story is Clinton's speaker fee at UNLV and the contract details of her travel requirements . There is outrage about both the fee and the travel lifestyle requirements.  Clinton has said the fee will be donated.

This blog's goal is to inform the readers about all the news related to the 2016 Presidential Election.  I do my best to be as unbiased as possible and would ideally like to link to stories about each nominee's vision for America.  When these "scandal" types of stories break, however, they are news and I will link to them.

For all the weekend 2016 Presidential Election stories click here

Link to the odds on all the candidates
Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
Link to recent Polls

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Updated Odds: Clinton lead shrinks; Paul, Rubio, Christie up and Perry down

For the second straight week Hillary Clinton's odds have declined, although she remains the favorite by far. She peaked at 44.4% two weeks ago but is now down to 42.3%.

The biggest move up was by Rand Paul who's odds increased to 3.7% from 2.9% moving him to 4th overall.

Marco Rubio  improved from 3.5% to 3.9% and 3rd overall, 

Chris Christie had a strong week as well moving to 2.9% and 5th overall from 2.5% and 8th overall. Christie is still well behind his May numbers of 4.7% and #2 overall. 

Biggest drop was Rick Perry who after peaking at 3.1% and 4th overall is down to 2.1% and 8th overall this week.

Link to the odds on all the candidates
Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
Link to recent news on the race
Link to recent Polls

For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Marist Poll: Clinton lead shrinking; Bush/Christie lead for GOP nomination

Marist Poll taken 8/4-8/7 has Jeb Bush and Chris Christie leading for the Republican nomination at 13% followed closely by Ted Cruz, Paul Ryan, and Marco Rubio.  Here's the full results:

Choice of Republicans and Republican Leaning independents:
Jeb Bush         13%
Chris Christie 13%
Ted Cruz         10%
Paul Ryan           9%
Marco Rubio   9%
Rick Perry   7%
Rand Paul           7%
Scott Walker   4%
Rick Santorum   3%
Bobby Jindal   2%

The poll also shows Hillary Clinton leading over the Republican candidates but that lead has shrunk significantly from the April poll.  Christie, Bush, and Paul are all now within 7% of Clinton.  They were all double digits behind her in April.  Here's the comparision:

For full poll click here

For the odds on all the candidates
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For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Alaska Poll Palin in 6th place for Republican nomination with Clinton beating her head to head

A PPP Poll of Alaskan voters showed Ted Cruz and Rand Paul in the lead for the Republican nomination ahead of the state's former governor, Sarah Palin.  Here are the full results:

Ted Cruz ......................................................... 16%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 15%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 14%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 12%
Chris Christie .................................................. 12%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 11%
Scott Walker ................................................... 7%
Paul Ryan ....................................................... 6%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 5%
Someone else / Not sure ................................ 4%

The same poll also asked the voters about head to head matchups of Republican candidates over Hillary Clinton:

Rand Paul wins 50/36
Jeb Bush wins 47/38
Mike Huckabee wins 47/39
Chris Christie wins 45/34
Sarah Palin loses 36/55

The fact that most Republican candidates would defeat Clinton in Alaska is not surprising: the state voted heavily Republican in 2012 as Romney won the state 55% to 41%.

For full poll click here

For the odds on all the candidates
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For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Favorability Changes for Top Candidates

An AP-GfK Poll measured the favorable and unfavorable ratings of candidates July 24-28.  It also had the same ratings for a poll taken March 20-24.  Here are some of the findings:

- It's clear who the voters are most familiar with:  Hillary Clinton has both the highest favorable rating at 48 and the highest unfavorable rating at 42.  Most importantly she has the highest net favorable at +6.

Rick Perry and Ted Cruz showed the biggest improvements in their net rating but both remain at -8 favorability.  Rick Perry raised his favorable by 8 points and his net by 5. Ted Cruz raised his favorable by 4 while not gaining any unfavorable.

NC poll shows state is currently a toss up in 2016 presidential election

A Civitas Institute poll shows NC will likely be a toss up between the Republican candidate and Hillary Clinton in 2016.  Romney beat Obama in the state in 2012 50% to 48%.

First the party nominations:

For the Republicans, Jeb Bush holds a big lead followed by a tight group in Christie, Paul, Rubio, and Perry:

NJ Poll has Clinton over Christie

According to an August 6 Quinnipiac poll of NJ voters, Hillary Clinton leads Chris Christie 50-42 for President in 2016.

That is the closest gap, however, with any of the Republican nominees:
54-34 over Jeb Bush
55-35 over Rand Paul
57-34 over Mike Huckabee

This is not surprising as the Democrats won New Jersey rather easily in 2012 with Obama getting 58% and Romney 41%.

Link to full poll

For the odds on all the candidates
For recent news on the race
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For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds

Updated Odds: Perry, Clinton, Romney, Carson up. Rubio, Jindal down

This week's updated odds showed movement among 6 candidates:

Hillary Clinton continued to be the top candidate and actually improved her probability from 41% to 45%.

Rick Perry improved moving into a three way tie with Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan.  As of early July he was in 10th place and 7th place just last week. He seems to be capitalizing on the border crisis.  His probability is at 3.1%

Ohio Poll shows Clinton ahead of Republican candidates with Rand closest

Ohio figures to be one of the more important swing states in the 2016 election (Barack Obama won it 50.7% to 47.7% in 2012, but it was Republican in 2008 with George Bush winning it 50.8% to 48.7%)

A poll of 1,366 registered voters in Ohio taken July 24-28 showed Hillary Clinton ahead of  four possible Republican canadidates:

Gallup Favorable vs. Familiarity Ratings for 16 Presidential Candidates

Gallup released some interesting numbers where it combined each candidate's Favorability rating vs the Familiarity rating.  See chart below.

Some findings:

- Hillary Clinton is obviously the most known of the group (91% familiarity) but she also has the highest net favorability (+19% based on 55% favorable and 36% unfavorable)

Fox News Poll - Perry making move in race for Republican nomination

A Fox News Poll conducted 7/20-7/22 has many questions about Obama, Congress, direction of country, etc.

Buried in it are some 2016 Presidential race items:

Republican nomination:
Similar to other polls, it shows the Republican field as a crowded group of 7 candidates with 3% separating 1st from 7th (basically the margin of error)

In this poll Jeb Bush and Rick Perry lead the pack at 12% followed by Rand Paul at 11%, Chris Christie at 10%, and finally Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz at 9%.

The thing that stood out the most was Rick Perry's climb from just 3% in the poll taken in December to the 12% in this poll.

CNN Poll with likely nominees and a Romney vs. Obama question

CNN Poll taken 7/18-7/20 of 1,012 adults by Telephone

Republican nomination:
Chris Christie leading possible Republican candidates at 13% followed by Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee at 12% and Rick Perry and Paul Ryan at 11%. Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz are next at 8%

Christie and Perry show the biggest gain since their February 2014 poll gaining 3%.
Marco Rubio had the biggest decline from 9% to 6%.
All of these moves are within the poll's +/- 4.5% sampling error

	July 18-20	May 29-June 1	May 2-4	Mar. 7-9	Jan. 31-Feb. 2
Christie	13%	8%	9%	8%	10%
Paul	12%	14%	13%	16%	13%
Huckabee	12%	11%	10%	10%	14%
Perry	11%	6%	8%	11%	8%
Ryan	11%	10%	12%	15%	9%
Bush	8%	12%	13%	9%	10%
Cruz	8%	9%	7%	8%	8%
Rubio	6%	8%	6%	5%	9%
Walker	5%	5%	7%	NA	NA
Santorum	3%	4%	2%	3%	4%
Someone else	6%	6%	4%	6%	8%
None/No one	2%	2%	4%	4%	3%
No Opinion	3%	5%	7%	5%	4%

Democratic nomination:

No surprise the Hillary Clinton leads by a long shot here at 67%.
What has changed in the last few months has been the emergence of Elizabeth Warren (10%) as the #2 candidate ahead of Joe Biden (8%).
Warren had the biggest improvement in the poll since September 2013 improving by 3% while Biden has decreased by 2%.

                              July 18-20  Nov. 18-20   Sept. 6-8
                                 2014           2013            2013
 Clinton                     67%            63%            65%
 Warren                    10%             7%              7%
 Biden                       8%              12%            10%
 Cuomo                     4%               5%              6%
 O’Malley                   2%               2%              2%
 Someone else (vol.)   6%               6%              4%
 None/No one (vol.)     2%               3%              5%
 No opinion                1%               3%              2%

Romney vs. Obama and Romney vs. Clinton:
One interesting question is if there was an election today, who would you vote for, Romney or Obama?  Romney wins 53% to 44%.

Similar question with Romney vs. Clinton.  Clinton wins 55% to 42%

If you'd like to access the poll for more in depth analysis click here

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Updated Presidential Odds: Warren, Christie, Carson

This week, the odds changed for 7 of the top 50 candidates.

The biggest move up was by Elizabeth Warren who moved from 8th place to 6th place with her probability moving from 1.9% to 2.7%. (Odds from 35 to 1 to 25 to 1)

The biggest move down was by Chris Christie who moved from 4th place to 7th place with his probability moving from 3.4% to 2.3%. (Odds from 20 to 1 to 30 to 1)

Another candidate moving up was Ben Carson from 45th to 29th place.  He nearly doubled his odds but remains a longshot with a probability of 0.7%  (Odds 250 to 1 to 100 to 1).  He was not even showing up as a candidate in the odds a month ago.

John Kerry dropped from 19th to 23rd with his odds now at 75 to 1.

Three minor candidates moved further down:
Jim Webb from 24th to 40th now at 150 to 1
Russ Feingold from 39th to 43rd now at 200 to 1
Debbie Wasserman Shultz from 41st to 43rd at 200 to 1

For the odds on all the candidates
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Virginia Head to Head Presidential Poll

Poll of Virginia voters has Hillary Clinton leading against three top Republican Candidates:

Over Chris Christie (44%-34%)
Over Rand Paul (47%-37%)
Over Paul Ryan (47%-38%)

Obama won VA in 2012 51% to Romney's 47%

Link to poll 

For the odds on all the candidates
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July Florida Poll

Because of the large number of electoral votes, and the fact that the margin was less than 1% in 2012, Florida will be one of the more important battles in the 2016 presidential elections.

A poll released on 7/23 shows Hillary Clinton beating the top 4 Republican candidates with the closest being Rand Paul.  

Clinton 46%     Rand Paul 42%

Clinton 47%     Jeb Bush 41%

Clinton 49%     Chris Christie 38%

Clinton 53%     Marco Rubio 39%

The Republicans on the other hand win all the races in the hypothetical head to head against Joe Biden:

Biden  38%      Jeb Bush 47%

Biden  39%      Chris Christie 48%

Biden  39%      Rand Paul 47%

Biden  43%      Rubio 46%

Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney 50.0% to 49.1% in Florida in 2012.

More details here including a poll on the Florida Governor race.

For regular updates follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds

For the odds on all the candidates
For recent news on the race
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The odds remained unchanged this week so I thought I'd look at the candidates with the biggest changes in odds over the last 2 months.  For the full set of odds checkout my site

Most Improved:
Jeb Bush           +1.0%  (3.5% to 4.5%)
Hillary Clinton   +0.9%  (39.9% to 40.8%)
Rick Perry        +0.8%  (1.4% to 2.2%)
Mitt Romney     +0.5%  (0.9% to 1.3%)

Biggest Declines:
Chris Christie    -1.3%  (4.7% to 3.4%)
Eric Cantor       -0.5%  (0.9% to 0.4%)
Rand Paul         -0.4%  (3.5% to 3.1%)
Joe Biden         -0.4%  (2.3% to 1.9%)

There have been two additions to the odds in the last two months: Deval Patrick and Ben Carson, but both have very long odds.  250 to 1 odds and a 0.3% probability.

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New Hampshire Poll of potential Republican electorate shows Rand Paul leading (14%) followed by Chris Christie (13%), Jeb Bush (10%) and Ted Cruz (9%).  Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio tied for 5th at 7%.

Interestingly, Marco Rubio moves from fifth to first for the question "Who is your second choice"

Not surprisingly Clinton leads Biden in the poll 74/18

Only Rand Paul is within the margin of error in a head to head contest with Clinton (46/43)
Christie, Bush, and Rubio are close behind losing by a margin of 47/42 to Clinton.

Obama beat Romney 52/46 in New Hampshire in 2012

NBC News/Marist July 2014 New Hampshire Poll

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Iowa Poll of potential Republican electorate shows a tie between Jeb Bush and Rand Paul (12%) followed by Paul Ryan (11%), Rick Santorum (9%), Chris Christie (8%), and a three way tie for 6th of Rick Perry, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio (7%).

Interestingly, Rick Santorum moves from fourth to second for the question "Who is your second choice"

Not surprisingly Clinton leads Biden in the poll 70/20

Three Republican candidates are within the margin of error in a head to head battle with Clinton:

Clinton vs Paul 45/45

Clinton vs. Christie 44/43

Clinton vs. Bush 46/42 

Obama beat Romney 52/46 in Iowa in 2012

NBC/Marist July 2014 Iowa Poll

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This week I'm adding a probability for each candidate based on the relative odds of all candidates combined.

The top 3 candidates remain unchanged:
Clinton +165 / 40.8% probability
Bush and Rubio +1500 / 4.5% probability each

Improved Odds:
Rick Perry moves from 10th place to 7th place. (Odds from +5000 to +3000).  Probability  2.2%
Ted Cruz remains in 10th but improved odds from +5000 to +4000.  Probability 1.7%
Mitt Romney with biggest move this week from 29th to 12th (+8000 to +5000) probability 1.3%

Decreased Odds:
Christie and Ryan remain tied for 4th although both declined from +1800 to +2000 (probability 3.4%)
Joe Biden  declines from +2800 to +3500 (1.9%)
Michael Bloomberg declines from +6000 to +7000 (1.0%)

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2016 Presidential Poll released on 7/2 of 578 Michigan voters Clinton ahead of different Republican candidates:

Jeb Bush 47/37

Chris Christie 48/35

Ted Cruz 50/34

Mike Huckabee 48/36

Rand Paul 47/37

More interesting details including what college football teams they are a fan of in the  Release by Public Policy Polling!

In 2012 Obama beat Romney 54/45 in Michigan.

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I'm starting this blog to track the odds of winning the 2016 Presidential Elections on a weekly basis.

I will display the odds and add in commentary about what may have driven the changes from the prior week.

Currently the A Democrat is more likely to be elected (-120) than a Republican (+120).  An independent is a 50 to 1 long-shot (+5000).  These odds have not changed since I started tracking them in the middle of May 2014.

The person with the most likely odds is Hilary Clinton (+165).

Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are tied for 2nd (+1500)

Chris Christie and Paul Ryan are tied for 4th (+1800)

The top possible Independent is Michael Bloomberg (+6000)

There are 51 candidates that are being tracked as far as the odds.

For the odds on all the candidates
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