Friday, September 12, 2014
Saturday, August 30, 2014
Updated Odds: Clinton lead shrinks, Christie up to 4th, Perry down to 18th
Hillary Clinton continues to have a large, but shrinking lead. Her probability is now at 41.1%, well above the 2nd place candidate Marco Rubio who is at 4.5%. The probability has shrunk however from 44.4% at the beginning of the month.
Chris Christie has continued to rebound and is now in 4th place overall switching spots with Rand Paul, now in 5th. Christie was the top GOP candidate as late as the end of May before he started trending down, bottoming beginning of August at 8th place.
Paul Ryan dropped to 7th place from 6th swapping spot with Elizabeth Warren.
The biggest move of the week was another drop by Rick Perry. Perry is now in 18th place after peaking at 4th place at the beginning of the month. He is now behind much lesser known names like Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels.
Dark horse of the week goes to Andrew Cuomo who is now in 11th place. He has moved up each of the last 4 weeks from 20th place.
To see a list of all candidates and their odds, click here
Chris Christie has continued to rebound and is now in 4th place overall switching spots with Rand Paul, now in 5th. Christie was the top GOP candidate as late as the end of May before he started trending down, bottoming beginning of August at 8th place.
Paul Ryan dropped to 7th place from 6th swapping spot with Elizabeth Warren.
The biggest move of the week was another drop by Rick Perry. Perry is now in 18th place after peaking at 4th place at the beginning of the month. He is now behind much lesser known names like Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels.
Dark horse of the week goes to Andrew Cuomo who is now in 11th place. He has moved up each of the last 4 weeks from 20th place.
To see a list of all candidates and their odds, click here
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
Iowa Poll: Huckabee followed by Christie for Republicans and Clinton followed by Warren for Democrats
Iowa Poll of 500 voters was released today.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee leads over Chris Christie:
Mike Huckabee 13%
Chris Christie 11%
Rick Perry 9%
Jeb Bush 7%
Rand Paul 7%
Paul Ryan 6%
Rick Santorum 6%
Ted Cruz 5%
Marco Rubio 5%
Scott Walker 4%
John Kasich 1%
John Huntsman 1%
Respondents were also asked if their choice would change if Mitt Romney was added to the list. 35% said they would vote for Romney. What's interesting is nearly half of those voting for Christie, Rubio, and Perry would switch their vote to Romney. On the opposite end, very few of the Santorum and Cruz voters switched
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has a big lead over Elizabeth Warren:
Hillary Clinton 66%
Elizabeth Warren 10%
Joe Biden 8%
Andrew Cuomo 4%
Martin O'Malley 2%
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee leads over Chris Christie:
Mike Huckabee 13%
Chris Christie 11%
Rick Perry 9%
Jeb Bush 7%
Rand Paul 7%
Paul Ryan 6%
Rick Santorum 6%
Ted Cruz 5%
Marco Rubio 5%
Scott Walker 4%
John Kasich 1%
John Huntsman 1%
Respondents were also asked if their choice would change if Mitt Romney was added to the list. 35% said they would vote for Romney. What's interesting is nearly half of those voting for Christie, Rubio, and Perry would switch their vote to Romney. On the opposite end, very few of the Santorum and Cruz voters switched
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has a big lead over Elizabeth Warren:
Hillary Clinton 66%
Elizabeth Warren 10%
Joe Biden 8%
Andrew Cuomo 4%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Link to the Poll (2016 numbers on pages 44-51)
Link to the odds on all the candidates
Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
Link to recent Polls
Link to the odds on all the candidates
Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
Link to recent Polls
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds
Saturday, August 23, 2014
Updated Odds: Cruz replaces Perry in Top 10
There is a lot of debate about whether the indictment hurt or helped Rick Perry the last two weeks. One thing is very clear: For those putting money on the elections, it hurt. Rick Perry had the biggest drop among the top candidates moving from #8 to #15 with the probability dropping from 2.1% to 1.4%. He peaked at 4th place on 8/2 when his probability was at 3.1%, more than double what it is now.
One of the beneficiaries seems to be fellow Texan Ted Cruz who jumps back into the top 10 at #9 from last week's #11. Cruz had consistently been in 10th place before being replaced by Romney back in early August.
In other moves in the top 10, Marco Rubio has now caught Jeb Bush for 2nd place. They both shared the spot in June and July as well. Their individual probability is at 4.3%.
Hillary Clinton continues to be the big leader with a probability of 41.4%. That number has been eroding recently, however, after having peaked at 44.4% on 8/2.
One person to keep an eye on is Martin O'Malley. He is currently in 11th place (now ahead of more known names like Perry, Cuomo, and Jindal) and at only 1.5% probability. His numbers have improved however each of the last three weeks. Perhaps it's purely a mathematical consequence of Clinton's numbers dropping.
One of the beneficiaries seems to be fellow Texan Ted Cruz who jumps back into the top 10 at #9 from last week's #11. Cruz had consistently been in 10th place before being replaced by Romney back in early August.
In other moves in the top 10, Marco Rubio has now caught Jeb Bush for 2nd place. They both shared the spot in June and July as well. Their individual probability is at 4.3%.
Hillary Clinton continues to be the big leader with a probability of 41.4%. That number has been eroding recently, however, after having peaked at 44.4% on 8/2.
One person to keep an eye on is Martin O'Malley. He is currently in 11th place (now ahead of more known names like Perry, Cuomo, and Jindal) and at only 1.5% probability. His numbers have improved however each of the last three weeks. Perhaps it's purely a mathematical consequence of Clinton's numbers dropping.
To see a list of all candidates and their odds, click here
Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
Link to recent news on the race
Link to recent Polls
Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
Link to recent news on the race
Link to recent Polls
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds
Thursday, August 21, 2014
NY Poll: Clinton, Cuomo comfortably ahead of Republican nomineess
Quinnipac released a poll of NY state voters that showed Clinton and Cuomo well ahead of the top Republican candidates in the state.
Clinton leads:
60 - 29 percent over Jeb Bush (+31)
61 - 30 percent over Rand Paul (+29)
54 - 34 percent over Chris Christie (+20)
Cuomo leads:
53 - 30 percent over Bush (+23)
55 - 31 percent over Paul (+24)
47 - 37 percent over Christie (+10)
- Overall Clinton does a better job against the Republicans than Cuomo
- Overall Christie does the best amongt the Republicans which isn't a surprise given his close proximity to NY
One bright spot for Christie is has has closed the gap since February where he was down by 27 to Clinton (picked up 7 points) and down by 16 points to Cuomo (picked up 6 points)
NY is heavily Democratic as evidenced by Obama's 63-35 win over Romney in 2012 and is not expected to be in play in 2012.
Link to the poll
Clinton leads:
60 - 29 percent over Jeb Bush (+31)
61 - 30 percent over Rand Paul (+29)
54 - 34 percent over Chris Christie (+20)
Cuomo leads:
53 - 30 percent over Bush (+23)
55 - 31 percent over Paul (+24)
47 - 37 percent over Christie (+10)
- Overall Clinton does a better job against the Republicans than Cuomo
- Overall Christie does the best amongt the Republicans which isn't a surprise given his close proximity to NY
One bright spot for Christie is has has closed the gap since February where he was down by 27 to Clinton (picked up 7 points) and down by 16 points to Cuomo (picked up 6 points)
NY is heavily Democratic as evidenced by Obama's 63-35 win over Romney in 2012 and is not expected to be in play in 2012.
Link to the poll
Link to the odds on all the candidates
Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
Link to recent Polls
Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
Link to recent Polls
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds
Sunday, August 17, 2014
The Start of Scandal Season for the 2016 Presidential Election?
The two biggest 2016 Presidential Election are "mini scandals" from both sides.
On the Republican side, Texas Governor Rick Perry was indicted on abuse of power charges. Many on the right argue these are politically motivated. There's even some on the left that wonder how strong of a legal base the indictment has
On the Democratic side, the big story is Clinton's speaker fee at UNLV and the contract details of her travel requirements . There is outrage about both the fee and the travel lifestyle requirements. Clinton has said the fee will be donated.
This blog's goal is to inform the readers about all the news related to the 2016 Presidential Election. I do my best to be as unbiased as possible and would ideally like to link to stories about each nominee's vision for America. When these "scandal" types of stories break, however, they are news and I will link to them.
For all the weekend 2016 Presidential Election stories click here
On the Republican side, Texas Governor Rick Perry was indicted on abuse of power charges. Many on the right argue these are politically motivated. There's even some on the left that wonder how strong of a legal base the indictment has
On the Democratic side, the big story is Clinton's speaker fee at UNLV and the contract details of her travel requirements . There is outrage about both the fee and the travel lifestyle requirements. Clinton has said the fee will be donated.
This blog's goal is to inform the readers about all the news related to the 2016 Presidential Election. I do my best to be as unbiased as possible and would ideally like to link to stories about each nominee's vision for America. When these "scandal" types of stories break, however, they are news and I will link to them.
For all the weekend 2016 Presidential Election stories click here
Link to the odds on all the candidates
Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
Link to recent Polls
Link to the trend for the top 10 candidates
Link to recent Polls
For updates follow me @2016ElectOdds
Saturday, August 16, 2014
Updated Odds: Clinton lead shrinks; Paul, Rubio, Christie up and Perry down
For the second straight week Hillary Clinton's odds have declined, although she remains the favorite by far. She peaked at 44.4% two weeks ago but is now down to 42.3%.
The biggest move up was by Rand Paul who's odds increased to 3.7% from 2.9% moving him to 4th overall.
Marco Rubio improved from 3.5% to 3.9% and 3rd overall,
Chris Christie had a strong week as well moving to 2.9% and 5th overall from 2.5% and 8th overall. Christie is still well behind his May numbers of 4.7% and #2 overall.
Biggest drop was Rick Perry who after peaking at 3.1% and 4th overall is down to 2.1% and 8th overall this week.
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