Sunday, July 27, 2014

CNN Poll with likely nominees and a Romney vs. Obama question

CNN Poll taken 7/18-7/20 of 1,012 adults by Telephone

Republican nomination:
Chris Christie leading possible Republican candidates at 13% followed by Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee at 12% and Rick Perry and Paul Ryan at 11%. Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz are next at 8%

Christie and Perry show the biggest gain since their February 2014 poll gaining 3%.
Marco Rubio had the biggest decline from 9% to 6%.
All of these moves are within the poll's +/- 4.5% sampling error

July 18-20 May 29-June 1 May 2-4 Mar. 7-9 Jan. 31-Feb. 2
Christie 13% 8% 9% 8% 10%
Paul 12% 14% 13% 16% 13%
Huckabee 12% 11% 10% 10% 14%
Perry 11% 6% 8% 11% 8%
Ryan 11% 10% 12% 15% 9%
Bush 8% 12% 13% 9% 10%
Cruz 8% 9% 7% 8% 8%
Rubio 6% 8% 6% 5% 9%
Walker 5% 5% 7% NA NA
Santorum 3% 4% 2% 3% 4%
Someone else 6% 6% 4% 6% 8%
None/No one 2% 2% 4% 4% 3%
No Opinion 3% 5% 7% 5% 4%
Democratic nomination:
No surprise the Hillary Clinton leads by a long shot here at 67%.
What has changed in the last few months has been the emergence of Elizabeth Warren (10%) as the #2 candidate ahead of Joe Biden (8%).
Warren had the biggest improvement in the poll since September 2013 improving by 3% while Biden has decreased by 2%.

                              July 18-20  Nov. 18-20   Sept. 6-8
                                 2014           2013            2013
 Clinton                     67%            63%            65%
 Warren                    10%             7%              7%
 Biden                       8%              12%            10%
 Cuomo                     4%               5%              6%
 O’Malley                   2%               2%              2%
 Someone else (vol.)   6%               6%              4%
 None/No one (vol.)     2%               3%              5%
 No opinion                1%               3%              2%

Romney vs. Obama and Romney vs. Clinton:
One interesting question is if there was an election today, who would you vote for, Romney or Obama?  Romney wins 53% to 44%.

Similar question with Romney vs. Clinton.  Clinton wins 55% to 42%

If you'd like to access the poll for more in depth analysis click here

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