Thursday, July 31, 2014

Gallup Favorable vs. Familiarity Ratings for 16 Presidential Candidates



Gallup released some interesting numbers where it combined each candidate's Favorability rating vs the Familiarity rating.  See chart below.


Some findings:
- Hillary Clinton is obviously the most known of the group (91% familiarity) but she also has the highest net favorability (+19% based on 55% favorable and 36% unfavorable)

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Fox News Poll - Perry making move in race for Republican nomination

A Fox News Poll conducted 7/20-7/22 has many questions about Obama, Congress, direction of country, etc.

Buried in it are some 2016 Presidential race items:

Republican nomination:
Similar to other polls, it shows the Republican field as a crowded group of 7 candidates with 3% separating 1st from 7th (basically the margin of error)

In this poll Jeb Bush and Rick Perry lead the pack at 12% followed by Rand Paul at 11%, Chris Christie at 10%, and finally Paul Ryan, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz at 9%.

The thing that stood out the most was Rick Perry's climb from just 3% in the poll taken in December to the 12% in this poll.

Sunday, July 27, 2014

CNN Poll with likely nominees and a Romney vs. Obama question

CNN Poll taken 7/18-7/20 of 1,012 adults by Telephone

Republican nomination:
Chris Christie leading possible Republican candidates at 13% followed by Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee at 12% and Rick Perry and Paul Ryan at 11%. Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz are next at 8%

Christie and Perry show the biggest gain since their February 2014 poll gaining 3%.
Marco Rubio had the biggest decline from 9% to 6%.
All of these moves are within the poll's +/- 4.5% sampling error

July 18-20 May 29-June 1 May 2-4 Mar. 7-9 Jan. 31-Feb. 2
Christie 13% 8% 9% 8% 10%
Paul 12% 14% 13% 16% 13%
Huckabee 12% 11% 10% 10% 14%
Perry 11% 6% 8% 11% 8%
Ryan 11% 10% 12% 15% 9%
Bush 8% 12% 13% 9% 10%
Cruz 8% 9% 7% 8% 8%
Rubio 6% 8% 6% 5% 9%
Walker 5% 5% 7% NA NA
Santorum 3% 4% 2% 3% 4%
Someone else 6% 6% 4% 6% 8%
None/No one 2% 2% 4% 4% 3%
No Opinion 3% 5% 7% 5% 4%
Democratic nomination:
No surprise the Hillary Clinton leads by a long shot here at 67%.
What has changed in the last few months has been the emergence of Elizabeth Warren (10%) as the #2 candidate ahead of Joe Biden (8%).
Warren had the biggest improvement in the poll since September 2013 improving by 3% while Biden has decreased by 2%.

                              July 18-20  Nov. 18-20   Sept. 6-8
                                 2014           2013            2013
 Clinton                     67%            63%            65%
 Warren                    10%             7%              7%
 Biden                       8%              12%            10%
 Cuomo                     4%               5%              6%
 O’Malley                   2%               2%              2%
 Someone else (vol.)   6%               6%              4%
 None/No one (vol.)     2%               3%              5%
 No opinion                1%               3%              2%

Romney vs. Obama and Romney vs. Clinton:
One interesting question is if there was an election today, who would you vote for, Romney or Obama?  Romney wins 53% to 44%.

Similar question with Romney vs. Clinton.  Clinton wins 55% to 42%

If you'd like to access the poll for more in depth analysis click here

For the odds on all the candidates
For recent news on the race
For recent Polls

For updates on the 2016 Presidential race, follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds




Saturday, July 26, 2014

Updated Presidential Odds: Warren, Christie, Carson

This week, the odds changed for 7 of the top 50 candidates.

The biggest move up was by Elizabeth Warren who moved from 8th place to 6th place with her probability moving from 1.9% to 2.7%. (Odds from 35 to 1 to 25 to 1)

The biggest move down was by Chris Christie who moved from 4th place to 7th place with his probability moving from 3.4% to 2.3%. (Odds from 20 to 1 to 30 to 1)

Another candidate moving up was Ben Carson from 45th to 29th place.  He nearly doubled his odds but remains a longshot with a probability of 0.7%  (Odds 250 to 1 to 100 to 1).  He was not even showing up as a candidate in the odds a month ago.

John Kerry dropped from 19th to 23rd with his odds now at 75 to 1.

Three minor candidates moved further down:
Jim Webb from 24th to 40th now at 150 to 1
Russ Feingold from 39th to 43rd now at 200 to 1
Debbie Wasserman Shultz from 41st to 43rd at 200 to 1

For the odds on all the candidates
For recent news on the race
For recent Polls

For updates on 2016 Presidential odds and polls follow me @2016ElectOdds

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Virginia Head to Head Presidential Poll

Poll of Virginia voters has Hillary Clinton leading against three top Republican Candidates:

Over Chris Christie (44%-34%)
Over Rand Paul (47%-37%)
Over Paul Ryan (47%-38%)

Obama won VA in 2012 51% to Romney's 47%

Link to poll 

For the odds on all the candidates
For recent news on the race
For recent Polls

For election updates follow me @2016electodds


Wednesday, July 23, 2014

July Florida Poll

Because of the large number of electoral votes, and the fact that the margin was less than 1% in 2012, Florida will be one of the more important battles in the 2016 presidential elections.

A poll released on 7/23 shows Hillary Clinton beating the top 4 Republican candidates with the closest being Rand Paul.  

Clinton 46%     Rand Paul 42%
Clinton 47%     Jeb Bush 41%
Clinton 49%     Chris Christie 38%
Clinton 53%     Marco Rubio 39%

The Republicans on the other hand win all the races in the hypothetical head to head against Joe Biden:

Biden  38%      Jeb Bush 47%
Biden  39%      Chris Christie 48%
Biden  39%      Rand Paul 47%
Biden  43%      Rubio 46%

Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney 50.0% to 49.1% in Florida in 2012.

More details here including a poll on the Florida Governor race.






Sunday, July 20, 2014

The odds remained unchanged this week so I thought I'd look at the candidates with the biggest changes in odds over the last 2 months.  For the full set of odds checkout my site

Most Improved:
Jeb Bush           +1.0%  (3.5% to 4.5%)
Hillary Clinton   +0.9%  (39.9% to 40.8%)
Rick Perry        +0.8%  (1.4% to 2.2%)
Mitt Romney     +0.5%  (0.9% to 1.3%)

Biggest Declines:
Chris Christie    -1.3%  (4.7% to 3.4%)
Eric Cantor       -0.5%  (0.9% to 0.4%)
Rand Paul         -0.4%  (3.5% to 3.1%)
Joe Biden         -0.4%  (2.3% to 1.9%)

There have been two additions to the odds in the last two months: Deval Patrick and Ben Carson, but both have very long odds.  250 to 1 odds and a 0.3% probability.

For the odds on all the candidates
For recent news on the race
For recent Polls

For updates follow me on twitter @2016ElectOdds



Saturday, July 19, 2014

New Hampshire Poll of potential Republican electorate shows Rand Paul leading (14%) followed by Chris Christie (13%), Jeb Bush (10%) and Ted Cruz (9%).  Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio tied for 5th at 7%.

Interestingly, Marco Rubio moves from fifth to first for the question "Who is your second choice"

Not surprisingly Clinton leads Biden in the poll 74/18

Only Rand Paul is within the margin of error in a head to head contest with Clinton (46/43)
Christie, Bush, and Rubio are close behind losing by a margin of 47/42 to Clinton.

Obama beat Romney 52/46 in New Hampshire in 2012

Iowa Poll of potential Republican electorate shows a tie between Jeb Bush and Rand Paul (12%) followed by Paul Ryan (11%), Rick Santorum (9%), Chris Christie (8%), and a three way tie for 6th of Rick Perry, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio (7%).

Interestingly, Rick Santorum moves from fourth to second for the question "Who is your second choice"

Not surprisingly Clinton leads Biden in the poll 70/20

Three Republican candidates are within the margin of error in a head to head battle with Clinton:
Clinton vs Paul 45/45
Clinton vs. Christie 44/43
Clinton vs. Bush 46/42 

Obama beat Romney 52/46 in Iowa in 2012



Saturday, July 12, 2014

This week I'm adding a probability for each candidate based on the relative odds of all candidates combined.

The top 3 candidates remain unchanged:
Clinton +165 / 40.8% probability
Bush and Rubio +1500 / 4.5% probability each

Improved Odds:
Rick Perry moves from 10th place to 7th place. (Odds from +5000 to +3000).  Probability  2.2%
Ted Cruz remains in 10th but improved odds from +5000 to +4000.  Probability 1.7%
Mitt Romney with biggest move this week from 29th to 12th (+8000 to +5000) probability 1.3%

Decreased Odds:
Christie and Ryan remain tied for 4th although both declined from +1800 to +2000 (probability 3.4%)
Joe Biden  declines from +2800 to +3500 (1.9%)
Michael Bloomberg declines from +6000 to +7000 (1.0%)

For the odds on all the candidates
For recent news on the race
For recent Polls

Follow me on twitter for updates @2016ElectOdds

Monday, July 7, 2014

2016 Presidential Poll released on 7/2 of 578 Michigan voters Clinton ahead of different Republican candidates:
Jeb Bush 47/37
Chris Christie 48/35
Ted Cruz 50/34
Mike Huckabee 48/36
Rand Paul 47/37

More interesting details including what college football teams they are a fan of in the  Release by Public Policy Polling!

In 2012 Obama beat Romney 54/45 in Michigan.

Sunday, July 6, 2014

I'm starting this blog to track the odds of winning the 2016 Presidential Elections on a weekly basis.

I will display the odds and add in commentary about what may have driven the changes from the prior week.

Currently the A Democrat is more likely to be elected (-120) than a Republican (+120).  An independent is a 50 to 1 long-shot (+5000).  These odds have not changed since I started tracking them in the middle of May 2014.

The person with the most likely odds is Hilary Clinton (+165).

Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are tied for 2nd (+1500)

Chris Christie and Paul Ryan are tied for 4th (+1800)

The top possible Independent is Michael Bloomberg (+6000)

There are 51 candidates that are being tracked as far as the odds.

For the odds on all the candidates
For recent news on the race
For recent Polls

Follow me on twitter for updates @2016ElectOdds